And the winner is...
Well, like any good political blog, I feel I must make some intelligent yet mostly abitrary predictions about who will win in the upcoming US senate races. I'm just giving predictions for 5 of the most highly publicized races, or races where an incumbent may actually lose. Senate incumbents historically have a 97% reelection rate, but I think that rate will be much lower in this election.
Ohio- Mike DeWine(R) Vs Sherrod Brown(D) -I'm going with Sherrod Brown on this one, the Republicans are just too scandal plagued in Ohio to have much hope to win this seat. But the numbers will be close, specially with DeWine being an incumbent and a moderate.
Tennessee- Bob Corker (R) Vs Harold Ford (D)- I think that Corker might win this one. But ask me tomorrow and I'll probably have a different answer. This race is basically too close to call, but if I had to give an answer I think the Republican has the advantage. But really, it's going to be very close. It's hard to separate all the national hype and publicity over Harold Ford from what local Tennesse people really think about him.
Virginia - George Allen (R) Vs Jim Webb(D)- It's close, but I think Webb has an edge. This race has been a messy, dirty campaign. If I were a Virginian I wouldn't want to vote for either of these guys. Webb's victory relies largely on the DC vote, as the liberal DC suburbs spread further and further across northern Virginia.
Pennsylvania- Rick Santorum(R) Vs Bob Casey (D). Goooood-bye Santorum. No close call on this race, moderate Bob Casey is going to win. Santorum's viewpoints have never been in line with most Pennsylvanians, who lean moderate to liberal. Bob Casey may be fairly boring and uninspiring, but he will be a nice change for voters sick of Santorum's vitrol.
Rhode Island- Lincoln Chafee(R) Vs Sheldon Whitehouse(D). I think Chafee is going to hold onto his seat. He is the Republican version of Joe Lieberman; he is very moderate and tends to vote with the Democrats almost as much as the Republicans. Everyone seems to love a moderate these days, and he is pretty popular in Rhode Island, so I think he'll just barely beat the Democrat.
Of course, we'll see how right I am after election day. I'll be happy with 3/5's accuracy. Please ring in with your own predictions or comments.
Well, like any good political blog, I feel I must make some intelligent yet mostly abitrary predictions about who will win in the upcoming US senate races. I'm just giving predictions for 5 of the most highly publicized races, or races where an incumbent may actually lose. Senate incumbents historically have a 97% reelection rate, but I think that rate will be much lower in this election.
Ohio- Mike DeWine(R) Vs Sherrod Brown(D) -I'm going with Sherrod Brown on this one, the Republicans are just too scandal plagued in Ohio to have much hope to win this seat. But the numbers will be close, specially with DeWine being an incumbent and a moderate.
Tennessee- Bob Corker (R) Vs Harold Ford (D)- I think that Corker might win this one. But ask me tomorrow and I'll probably have a different answer. This race is basically too close to call, but if I had to give an answer I think the Republican has the advantage. But really, it's going to be very close. It's hard to separate all the national hype and publicity over Harold Ford from what local Tennesse people really think about him.
Virginia - George Allen (R) Vs Jim Webb(D)- It's close, but I think Webb has an edge. This race has been a messy, dirty campaign. If I were a Virginian I wouldn't want to vote for either of these guys. Webb's victory relies largely on the DC vote, as the liberal DC suburbs spread further and further across northern Virginia.
Pennsylvania- Rick Santorum(R) Vs Bob Casey (D). Goooood-bye Santorum. No close call on this race, moderate Bob Casey is going to win. Santorum's viewpoints have never been in line with most Pennsylvanians, who lean moderate to liberal. Bob Casey may be fairly boring and uninspiring, but he will be a nice change for voters sick of Santorum's vitrol.
Rhode Island- Lincoln Chafee(R) Vs Sheldon Whitehouse(D). I think Chafee is going to hold onto his seat. He is the Republican version of Joe Lieberman; he is very moderate and tends to vote with the Democrats almost as much as the Republicans. Everyone seems to love a moderate these days, and he is pretty popular in Rhode Island, so I think he'll just barely beat the Democrat.
Of course, we'll see how right I am after election day. I'll be happy with 3/5's accuracy. Please ring in with your own predictions or comments.
posted by Stoltze at
2:10 PM
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